August is here... and with it, the election-year blues. It always seems, around this time, that Republicans have lost their chance at winning, as the Democrats and their media cheerleaders gear up for the fall campaign (and early voting).
Early voting and vote-by-mail are the death of democracy. Never mind the potential for fraud and rigging. There also is just a sense that the debates and campaigns are futile because the Democrats are simply running a machine.
Here are a few words of consolation.
1. Republicans never win, except by surprise. Given the extent of rigging, legal and otherwise, in our elections, the only way Republicans win on a large scale is when Democrats overlook something, as in 2016 with the upper Midwest. So if it feels like they are losing, that's not necessarily a bad thing, within reason.
2. Democrats won't expand the map. Kamala Harris is successfully pulling most of the Biden coalition together. But she's not going to attract any conservatives or new independent votes. So she's basically going to have to play defense.
3. That means there are opportunities. And the most important one is Pennsylvania. Republicans can win there, for a variety of reasons. Then Trump needs to win at least one, and probably two, additional states. But he can.
Pennsylvania + Georgia = Trump 270
Pennsylvania + Michigan = Trump 269 (tie, goes to House on January 6)
Pennsylvania + 2 or 3 others = various winning combinations
So hang in there. Something always changes.
I was saying last month that the Democrats weren't simply going to lay down and let Trump win. Not because they are power-hungry or whatever, but just because they are Americans (despite themselves). They don't just quit.
So this is the close race I envisioned -- and which the voters deserve. They are going to make mistakes and there are going to be opportunities for Trump. I think the choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was a mistake made for antisemitic reasons.
Wouldn't it be fitting if that's what cost Kamala Harris the election in the end?
This is my first broadcast from the new office and studio in Washington, DC, where I'll be for a couple of years my neighborhood back in L.A. cleans up -- and as we follow the Trump administration from a little closer up than usual.
Topics:
- The anniversary of the attempted assassination of President Donald Trump
- The escalating tariff battle with various different trading partners
- The future of the Middle East peace talks, and ongoing antisemitism
- The Jeffrey Epstein files and whether they mean anything at all
- The continued crisis of the Texas floods, and stories of heroism and survival
And more!
Special guests:
- James Rosen - Newsmax chief Washington correspondent
- Bob Price - Breitbart News Texas reporter, on the ongoing floods
- Robert Cahill - Trafalgar Polling, on a new alliance of reliable pollsters
- Rabbi Yaakov Menken - Coalition for Jewish Values - on Israel & antisemitism
Tune in: 7-10 p.m. ET, 4-7 p.m. PT
Call: 866-957-2874
This week’s portion tells the grand story of the prophet who tried to curse people of Israel and instead ended up blessing them.
I am reminded that these portions continue to be relevant anew, as this particular reading lent the title for Israel’s recent 12 Day War against Iran, “Operation Rising Lion.”
This week's portion includes the commandment of the red heifer -- one of the classic "irrational" commandments whose fulfillment is an expression of faith. It also includes the regrettable episode in which Moses strikes the rock.
I referred to this story in a wedding speech last night. Why was Moses punished for striking the rock in Numbers, when he struck the rock without incident in Exodus -- both for the purpose of providing water to the people?
The answer is that in the interim, the Jewish people had received the Torah, which is like the marriage contract between the people of Israel and God. In a marriage, you do not resolve things by breaking boundaries, but through love.
The additional reading, from Judges Chapter 11, is the story of Jephthah (Yiftach), a man whom the leaders spurn, but to whom they must turn to save the nation. The parallels to our present political circumstances are striking.
Shabbat Shalom and Happy Fourth of July!
...
