August is here... and with it, the election-year blues. It always seems, around this time, that Republicans have lost their chance at winning, as the Democrats and their media cheerleaders gear up for the fall campaign (and early voting).
Early voting and vote-by-mail are the death of democracy. Never mind the potential for fraud and rigging. There also is just a sense that the debates and campaigns are futile because the Democrats are simply running a machine.
Here are a few words of consolation.
1. Republicans never win, except by surprise. Given the extent of rigging, legal and otherwise, in our elections, the only way Republicans win on a large scale is when Democrats overlook something, as in 2016 with the upper Midwest. So if it feels like they are losing, that's not necessarily a bad thing, within reason.
2. Democrats won't expand the map. Kamala Harris is successfully pulling most of the Biden coalition together. But she's not going to attract any conservatives or new independent votes. So she's basically going to have to play defense.
3. That means there are opportunities. And the most important one is Pennsylvania. Republicans can win there, for a variety of reasons. Then Trump needs to win at least one, and probably two, additional states. But he can.
Pennsylvania + Georgia = Trump 270
Pennsylvania + Michigan = Trump 269 (tie, goes to House on January 6)
Pennsylvania + 2 or 3 others = various winning combinations
So hang in there. Something always changes.
I was saying last month that the Democrats weren't simply going to lay down and let Trump win. Not because they are power-hungry or whatever, but just because they are Americans (despite themselves). They don't just quit.
So this is the close race I envisioned -- and which the voters deserve. They are going to make mistakes and there are going to be opportunities for Trump. I think the choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was a mistake made for antisemitic reasons.
Wouldn't it be fitting if that's what cost Kamala Harris the election in the end?
This week’s portion launches the great story of Abraham, who is told to leave everything of his life behind — except his immediate family — and to leave for “the Land that I shall show you.”
There’s something interesting in the fact that Abraham is told to leave his father’s house, as if breaking away from his father’s life — but his father, in fact, began the journey, moving from Ur to Haran (in last week’s portion). His father set a positive example — why should Abraham leave him?
Some obvious answers suggest themselves — adulthood, needing to make one’s own choices, his father not going far enough, etc.
But I think there is another answer. Abraham (known for the moment as Abram) needs to establish his own household. This is not just about making one’s own choice, but really about choosing one’s own starting point. It’s starting over.
Sometimes we start over in fundamental ways even if much that surrounds us remains the same. Sometimes the journey we have to ...
The story of Noah is familiar; the details, less so.
Noah is often seen as an ambivalent figure. He was righteous -- but only for his generation. What was his deficiency?
One answer suggests itself: knowing that the world was about to be flooded, he built an Ark for the animals and for his own family -- but did not try to save anyone else or to convince them to repent and change their ways (the prophet Jonah, later, would share that reluctance).
Abraham, later, would set himself apart by arguing with God -- with the Lord Himself! -- against the destruction of Sodom and Gomorrah, saying that they should be saved if there were enough righteous people to be found (there were not).
Still, Noah was good enough -- and sometimes, that really is sufficient to save the world. We don't need heroes every time -- just ordinary decency.
Hi all -- as I noted last month, I'm going to be closing down my Locals page, at least for tips and subscriptions -- I may keep the page up and the posts as well, but I'm no longer going to be accepting any kind of payment.
Look for cancelation in the very near future. Thank you for your support!
