August is here... and with it, the election-year blues. It always seems, around this time, that Republicans have lost their chance at winning, as the Democrats and their media cheerleaders gear up for the fall campaign (and early voting).
Early voting and vote-by-mail are the death of democracy. Never mind the potential for fraud and rigging. There also is just a sense that the debates and campaigns are futile because the Democrats are simply running a machine.
Here are a few words of consolation.
1. Republicans never win, except by surprise. Given the extent of rigging, legal and otherwise, in our elections, the only way Republicans win on a large scale is when Democrats overlook something, as in 2016 with the upper Midwest. So if it feels like they are losing, that's not necessarily a bad thing, within reason.
2. Democrats won't expand the map. Kamala Harris is successfully pulling most of the Biden coalition together. But she's not going to attract any conservatives or new independent votes. So she's basically going to have to play defense.
3. That means there are opportunities. And the most important one is Pennsylvania. Republicans can win there, for a variety of reasons. Then Trump needs to win at least one, and probably two, additional states. But he can.
Pennsylvania + Georgia = Trump 270
Pennsylvania + Michigan = Trump 269 (tie, goes to House on January 6)
Pennsylvania + 2 or 3 others = various winning combinations
So hang in there. Something always changes.
I was saying last month that the Democrats weren't simply going to lay down and let Trump win. Not because they are power-hungry or whatever, but just because they are Americans (despite themselves). They don't just quit.
So this is the close race I envisioned -- and which the voters deserve. They are going to make mistakes and there are going to be opportunities for Trump. I think the choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was a mistake made for antisemitic reasons.
Wouldn't it be fitting if that's what cost Kamala Harris the election in the end?
This is the portion that all journalists should love: the Torah tells the story of the 12 spies, only two of whom tell the truth when the other ten shade it in a negative away (perhaps to suit a political agenda that is opposed to Moses).
It's not that the ten "lying" spies misconstrue the facts about the Land of Israel; rather, they interject their opinions that the land is impossible to conquer, which strikes unnecessary terror into the hearts of the people.
We have many examples of such fake news today -- from the Iranian propaganda outlets spreading false claims that they are winning the war, to California politicians spreading false horror stories about ICE raids in L.A.
The people realize, too late, that they have been fooled, and once they are condemned to die in the desert, they try to rush into Israel -- only to be defeated by the inhabitants, as the spies predicted that they would be.
But as consolation, God gives the people new commandments -- focused on things they must ...
This week's portion discusses the procedure for lighting the menorah, the holy seven-branched lamp, in the Tabernacle (and later the Temple). It also describes an episode where the people crave meat, and God punishes them by giving it to them in excess. We also read the story of Miriam, Moses's sister, who is punished with the spiritual skin blemish of tzara'at for speaking about her brother, thus violating the prohibition against lashon hara (evil tongue).
I heard a fantastic sermon this week about the lighting of the menorah: that while only the priests were qualified to clean and purify the menorah, anyone could light it. A reminder that each of us can inspire others along the way.
This week we study the vow of the Nazirite; a reminder that sometimes trying to be too holy is excessive, and the best we can do is to be the best that we are.
https://www.chabad.org/parshah/torahreading_cdo/aid/2495720/p/complete/jewish/Naso-Torah-Reading.htm
