I posted a thread on X (@joelpollak) about the Jewish vote. Here's what I said.
Some thoughts on the Jewish vote.
You should not believe polls that tell you Trump is winning the Jewish vote, especially polls with small samples and large margins of error.
Here is what you are more likely to see, given Harris's VP choice and other developments. (1/5)
Trump will do very well with Jews, given 1) his record on Israel; 2) Biden's perceived weakness on Israel; 3) Harris's snub of Josh Shapiro; 4) acute fears of left-wing antisemitism; 5) reduced fears of right-wing antisemitism.
But the ceiling for Trump among Jews is 40%. (2/5)
Many Jews are dogmatically loyal to the Democratic Party. The reasons have to do with self-perception, i.e. being seen as on the side of "social justice," both for narcissistic reasons and self-preservation in big cities; and about irrational fear of Christian conservatism. (3/5)
I'd say one-third of liberal Jews care enough about Israel and antisemitism (as opposed to abortion) to consider voting for Trump. Maybe half will actually do so. The rest have been persuaded by demonization of JD Vance and Kamala Harris happyjoy to stay with the Democrats. (4/5)
But if 1/10 to 1/6 of Jewish Democrats flip Republican, that could have an impact -- thousands of votes -- in Pennsylvania, and maybe Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan... In a close race...
Trump won't win the Jewish vote but could win enough of it to make a difference. (5/5)
This is the portion that all journalists should love: the Torah tells the story of the 12 spies, only two of whom tell the truth when the other ten shade it in a negative away (perhaps to suit a political agenda that is opposed to Moses).
It's not that the ten "lying" spies misconstrue the facts about the Land of Israel; rather, they interject their opinions that the land is impossible to conquer, which strikes unnecessary terror into the hearts of the people.
We have many examples of such fake news today -- from the Iranian propaganda outlets spreading false claims that they are winning the war, to California politicians spreading false horror stories about ICE raids in L.A.
The people realize, too late, that they have been fooled, and once they are condemned to die in the desert, they try to rush into Israel -- only to be defeated by the inhabitants, as the spies predicted that they would be.
But as consolation, God gives the people new commandments -- focused on things they must ...
This week's portion discusses the procedure for lighting the menorah, the holy seven-branched lamp, in the Tabernacle (and later the Temple). It also describes an episode where the people crave meat, and God punishes them by giving it to them in excess. We also read the story of Miriam, Moses's sister, who is punished with the spiritual skin blemish of tzara'at for speaking about her brother, thus violating the prohibition against lashon hara (evil tongue).
I heard a fantastic sermon this week about the lighting of the menorah: that while only the priests were qualified to clean and purify the menorah, anyone could light it. A reminder that each of us can inspire others along the way.
This week we study the vow of the Nazirite; a reminder that sometimes trying to be too holy is excessive, and the best we can do is to be the best that we are.
https://www.chabad.org/parshah/torahreading_cdo/aid/2495720/p/complete/jewish/Naso-Torah-Reading.htm
