I posted a thread on X (@joelpollak) about the Jewish vote. Here's what I said.
Some thoughts on the Jewish vote.
You should not believe polls that tell you Trump is winning the Jewish vote, especially polls with small samples and large margins of error.
Here is what you are more likely to see, given Harris's VP choice and other developments. (1/5)
Trump will do very well with Jews, given 1) his record on Israel; 2) Biden's perceived weakness on Israel; 3) Harris's snub of Josh Shapiro; 4) acute fears of left-wing antisemitism; 5) reduced fears of right-wing antisemitism.
But the ceiling for Trump among Jews is 40%. (2/5)
Many Jews are dogmatically loyal to the Democratic Party. The reasons have to do with self-perception, i.e. being seen as on the side of "social justice," both for narcissistic reasons and self-preservation in big cities; and about irrational fear of Christian conservatism. (3/5)
I'd say one-third of liberal Jews care enough about Israel and antisemitism (as opposed to abortion) to consider voting for Trump. Maybe half will actually do so. The rest have been persuaded by demonization of JD Vance and Kamala Harris happyjoy to stay with the Democrats. (4/5)
But if 1/10 to 1/6 of Jewish Democrats flip Republican, that could have an impact -- thousands of votes -- in Pennsylvania, and maybe Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan... In a close race...
Trump won't win the Jewish vote but could win enough of it to make a difference. (5/5)
The story of Noah is familiar; the details, less so.
Noah is often seen as an ambivalent figure. He was righteous -- but only for his generation. What was his deficiency?
One answer suggests itself: knowing that the world was about to be flooded, he built an Ark for the animals and for his own family -- but did not try to save anyone else or to convince them to repent and change their ways (the prophet Jonah, later, would share that reluctance).
Abraham, later, would set himself apart by arguing with God -- with the Lord Himself! -- against the destruction of Sodom and Gomorrah, saying that they should be saved if there were enough righteous people to be found (there were not).
Still, Noah was good enough -- and sometimes, that really is sufficient to save the world. We don't need heroes every time -- just ordinary decency.
Hi all -- as I noted last month, I'm going to be closing down my Locals page, at least for tips and subscriptions -- I may keep the page up and the posts as well, but I'm no longer going to be accepting any kind of payment.
Look for cancelation in the very near future. Thank you for your support!
An interesting weekend -- one of the last of Daylight Savings Time -- in which there is much to celebrate, much to contemplate, and a bit to worry about.
The Gaza peace deal is shaky, but holding, after the living hostages returned; the shutdown is still going on, with no end in sight; the China trade war is heating up; and the confrontation with Venezuela continues to escalate.
The "No Kings" protest was a dud, despite the media's attempt to inflate it. What I find fascinating is that the Democrats have basically stolen the rhetoric and the imagery of the Tea Party protests, circa 2009. They claim they are defending the Constitution -- just like the Tea Party did.
On the one hand, this is good. How wonderful to have a political system in which both sides, bitterly opposed though they are, articulate differences through the Constitution -- and not, as in so many other countries, outside it.
On the other, this is sheer hypocrisy for the Democrats. Not only did they malign the Tea Party as ...
