I posted a thread on X (@joelpollak) about the Jewish vote. Here's what I said.
Some thoughts on the Jewish vote.
You should not believe polls that tell you Trump is winning the Jewish vote, especially polls with small samples and large margins of error.
Here is what you are more likely to see, given Harris's VP choice and other developments. (1/5)
Trump will do very well with Jews, given 1) his record on Israel; 2) Biden's perceived weakness on Israel; 3) Harris's snub of Josh Shapiro; 4) acute fears of left-wing antisemitism; 5) reduced fears of right-wing antisemitism.
But the ceiling for Trump among Jews is 40%. (2/5)
Many Jews are dogmatically loyal to the Democratic Party. The reasons have to do with self-perception, i.e. being seen as on the side of "social justice," both for narcissistic reasons and self-preservation in big cities; and about irrational fear of Christian conservatism. (3/5)
I'd say one-third of liberal Jews care enough about Israel and antisemitism (as opposed to abortion) to consider voting for Trump. Maybe half will actually do so. The rest have been persuaded by demonization of JD Vance and Kamala Harris happyjoy to stay with the Democrats. (4/5)
But if 1/10 to 1/6 of Jewish Democrats flip Republican, that could have an impact -- thousands of votes -- in Pennsylvania, and maybe Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan... In a close race...
Trump won't win the Jewish vote but could win enough of it to make a difference. (5/5)
This week'd portion begins the book of Numbers. Interestingly, the Hebrew name for the book is "In the Desert," not "Numbers." The portion, which happens to be my bar mitzvah portion, focuses almost as much on the names of the princes of each tribe as the number of soldiers it fielded. It also focuses on the configuration of the tribal camps around the central Tabernacle and the Levites.
So why "Numbers" instead of "Names" or "Places"? The numbers are, to be sure, a unique feature of the opening of this Biblical book -- but they are not the focus of the rest of the narrative. The Hebrew focuses on the place where the events in the book take place, because essentially this is the narrative of the Israelites' wanderings from Egypt to Israel, across 40 years. We move from the giving of the Torah and the construction of the Tabernacle in Exodus and Leviticus, to the final valediction of Moses in Deuteronomy -- Bamidbar is the story of wandering that happened in between.
The question of ...
This week's portion begins with the laws of the Sabbath and the Sabbatical year, and the Jubilee year that restores all land to its original (tribal) owners. It also explores laws of property and labor that will apply in the Land of Israel, and the laws of vows and inheritance.
The Israelites are presented -- not for the last time -- with the essential moral choice that they must face, and the rewards for choosing well, along with the consequences for choosing poorly.
We learn that doing good things will earn God's protection from enemies. That does not mean that victims of terror, God forbid, were sinful. But it does mean that we can respond to evil by committing ourselves to a higher path.
This week's portion describes the major sacrifices that are to be offered by the Jewish people, including those that are offered only by the priestly Kohen class, and physical requirements of the people (men) who serve in that role.
Inter alia, there are interesting commandments -- such as an injection to treat animals with respect and care, first, by letting a mother animal nurse her offspring for a week before being offered in any sacrifice; and second, by refraining from slaughtering an animal and its offspring on the same day.
The commandments regarding animals remind us of the purpose of those regarding human beings: to uphold a divine connection, through ritual.
https://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/111878/jewish/Rabbi-Isaac-Luria-The-Ari-Hakodosh.htm
