I'm tired of being told Trump is winning easily who have no basis for saying so and who will claim that the election was stolen from him if and when they are wrong. I have told you before that I think he is winning -- I no longer think so, by the way, for the first time -- and I have told you my basis for believing so.
My basis for not believing so is Trump's own behavior. After showing up for the debate unprepared for the opportunity to speak directly to his own voters, he compounded the damage by attacking Taylor Swift in a pointless post on Truth Social. Coupled with reports that he was traveling with Laura Loomer -- an Internet provocatuese with her own agenda but nothing in particular to offer -- I have concluded that the Trump campaign has inexcusably lost its focus.
The election is still winnable, but he is not winning it, and he needs to change.
After making that argument, I found a lot of people agreed. But I also received a lot of pushback from some conservative influencers on social media. Here are the things they appear to believe and are encouraging other people to believe:
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"The polls are wrong." Polls showing Harris with a lead, or Trump with only a narrow lead, are said to be aimed at suppressing the vote and are not to be trusted. You should be skeptical of polls in general but there is a real possibility that Harris is winning, or that Trump isn't winning by enough to overcome the familiar problems with vote-by-mail.
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"Kamala's crowds are fake." The overwhelming enthusiasm of Democratic voters after Harris replaced Biden is not an illusion; they are back in this thing.
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"There is going to be a dramatic shift of minority voters." This never happens and there is no reason to think it is going to happen in a significant way, now.
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"Kamala got the debate questions in advance." She may have had some help, and there was apparently a deal about the moderators only fact-checking one side, but she didn't have the questions: her answers were terrible.
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"Trump never posted about Taylor Swift." I've literally seen people claim it was photoshopped. Go to Truth Social yourself and see it on his own feed.
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"People in Springfield, OH, are literally eating pets." There are problems with migrants in Springfield; this isn't one of them, even if it is a symbolic idea.
You can believe these things if you want to believe them. Just be aware that for many of the people circulating these claims, these are recreational beliefs, or ways in which they cope with reality, and that if they are wrong, they will just shift to other recreational beliefs, such as that the election was stolen anyway.
I do believe the 2020 election was "neither free nor fair" (and wrote a book to that effect). I also believe that there are "rigged" elements in the system (the ABC News debate, the vote-by-mail system). I still believe that Trump could win by swamping the polls with voters. He's not doing anything to achieve that.
Accordingly, I am going to tell you what I believe is actually happening. I could be wrong, but I'm also not trying to live in an alternative reality. I'm not being "defeatist"; I'm trying to help Trump and America avoid defeat.
I'm doing what I can to keep people focused on the task at hand, now. That requires honesty.
This is the final edition of THE AGENDA -- finished a few days early!
This week's portion elucidates some of the first laws and principles of the Torah that follow the Ten Commandments, including -- a message particularly relevant to freed slaves -- the Jewish restrictions on indentured servitude.
God also provides the basic civil laws of Jewish society, governing almost every area of life -- in this one portion! -- as well as several basic principles of faith and religious observance. Moses then ascends Sinai for 40 days.
One of the laws God gives is the law against taunting a foreigner. This is different from allowing people to enter your land illegally; it is about showing respect, however, for people from other lands and other groups.
I am reminded of the importance of this principle because of the rhetoric lately attacking Elon Musk, a fellow South African-turned-American, for his foreign roots -- often by people who favor illegal immigration, ironically.
...
Since the Palisades Fire on January 7, my posts have been fairly sparse. I have just been so busy -- fighting the fire, covering the fire, helping neighbors, and launching a new podcast, "Three Homeless Guys," with two local friends.
Things are up and down. My family is still displaced, and we haven't resolved our living situation. We are awaiting answers from the insurance company (State Farm) on what they will cover, including alternative living expenses.
There are some incredible opportunities opening up -- more on that later -- and our kids are generally doing well, though this has been hard for them as well (especially the two middle kids, who miss their friends and their house).
The emotion of it all hit me yesterday. Today I feel wrung out. But I also feel that, in a way, going through the fire has been a process of refinement, of re-casting in a new mould, to face new challenges. And to win each new day.
So much to talk about, once again, as the Trump administration continues at breakneck pace. From DOGE chewing through the federal bureaucracy, to Marco Rubio heading out on his first missions for Trump, there's so much...
Special guests:
Assemblyman Carl DeMaio -- on the L.A. fires and reforming CA insurance
Matt Boyle -- Breitbart News political editor, on DOGE and confirmations
Jamie Paige -- founder of the Westside Current, on L.A. politics and the fires
Frances Martel -- Breitbart News foreign editor, on Rubio and Russia/Ukraine
Rob Hersov -- South African commentator, on SA's fight with the White House
Tune in: SiriusXM Patriot 125, 7-10 p.m. ET, 4-7 p.m. PT
Call in: 866-957-2874
