I'm tired of being told Trump is winning easily who have no basis for saying so and who will claim that the election was stolen from him if and when they are wrong. I have told you before that I think he is winning -- I no longer think so, by the way, for the first time -- and I have told you my basis for believing so.
My basis for not believing so is Trump's own behavior. After showing up for the debate unprepared for the opportunity to speak directly to his own voters, he compounded the damage by attacking Taylor Swift in a pointless post on Truth Social. Coupled with reports that he was traveling with Laura Loomer -- an Internet provocatuese with her own agenda but nothing in particular to offer -- I have concluded that the Trump campaign has inexcusably lost its focus.
The election is still winnable, but he is not winning it, and he needs to change.
After making that argument, I found a lot of people agreed. But I also received a lot of pushback from some conservative influencers on social media. Here are the things they appear to believe and are encouraging other people to believe:
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"The polls are wrong." Polls showing Harris with a lead, or Trump with only a narrow lead, are said to be aimed at suppressing the vote and are not to be trusted. You should be skeptical of polls in general but there is a real possibility that Harris is winning, or that Trump isn't winning by enough to overcome the familiar problems with vote-by-mail.
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"Kamala's crowds are fake." The overwhelming enthusiasm of Democratic voters after Harris replaced Biden is not an illusion; they are back in this thing.
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"There is going to be a dramatic shift of minority voters." This never happens and there is no reason to think it is going to happen in a significant way, now.
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"Kamala got the debate questions in advance." She may have had some help, and there was apparently a deal about the moderators only fact-checking one side, but she didn't have the questions: her answers were terrible.
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"Trump never posted about Taylor Swift." I've literally seen people claim it was photoshopped. Go to Truth Social yourself and see it on his own feed.
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"People in Springfield, OH, are literally eating pets." There are problems with migrants in Springfield; this isn't one of them, even if it is a symbolic idea.
You can believe these things if you want to believe them. Just be aware that for many of the people circulating these claims, these are recreational beliefs, or ways in which they cope with reality, and that if they are wrong, they will just shift to other recreational beliefs, such as that the election was stolen anyway.
I do believe the 2020 election was "neither free nor fair" (and wrote a book to that effect). I also believe that there are "rigged" elements in the system (the ABC News debate, the vote-by-mail system). I still believe that Trump could win by swamping the polls with voters. He's not doing anything to achieve that.
Accordingly, I am going to tell you what I believe is actually happening. I could be wrong, but I'm also not trying to live in an alternative reality. I'm not being "defeatist"; I'm trying to help Trump and America avoid defeat.
I'm doing what I can to keep people focused on the task at hand, now. That requires honesty.
This double portion is the last reading from the Book of Numbers, or Bamidbar. This particular week, it doubles as the holiday of Rosh Chodesh, the head of the month, inaugurating the sad-then-happy month of Av.
The portion begins with a review of the law of vows and their nullification. It then covers the final preparations for entering the Land of Israel. The first order of business: revenge against the Midianites. Then: a deal with three tribes who wished to claim well-watered territories east of the Jordan River.
Finally: the demarcation of tribal boundaries within Israel, and a review of the commandments regarding such geographic issues as cities of refuge.
Why is it important to begin with the laws of nullifying vows? It might seem counterintuitive, given that the Jewish people are about to renew their covenant with God by entering into, and conquering, and living in, the Land.
My answer: We sometimes begin with the terms for dissolving a relationship in order to discover the ...
This week, we'll cover a wide variety of topics -- from the economy, to what's next on Capitol Hill after the "Big, Beautiful Bill," to the Middle East, and to the continuation of "lawfare." Is Tulsi Gabbard out for revenge against a "treasonous" former Obama administration? (That's a big word.)
Special guests:
Bradley Jaye -- Breitbart News congressional correspondent
Dylan Gwinn -- Breitbart News sports editor, on Trump and the Redskins
Alex Swoyer -- journalist and former Breitbart News colleague, on law fare.
Tune in: SiriusXM Patriot 125, 7-10 p.m. ET, 4-7 p.m. PT
Call: 866-957-2874
This week's portion is named for Pinchas, who was a priest who saved the Children of Israel by killing a prince and a Midianite woman while they were in the throes of passion (as part of a Midianite plot to undermine Israel).
Pinchas is seen as a hero, but this story has always bothered me, for obvious reasons. I'm going to go out on a limb here and opine that there are limits to religious zealotry. We Jews, too, need to practice the tolerance we expect.
I'm upset about recent incidents in which Jewish extremists -- who represent a really tiny minority of Israelis, but who have been unrestrained lately -- have confronted Palestinians, including Christians, and caused unnecessary harm.
I'm also very concerned about the fact that the religious community in Israel has been able to thwart the great public desire to integrate that community through military service. There is probably no greater moral threat to Israel.
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