I'm tired of being told Trump is winning easily who have no basis for saying so and who will claim that the election was stolen from him if and when they are wrong. I have told you before that I think he is winning -- I no longer think so, by the way, for the first time -- and I have told you my basis for believing so.
My basis for not believing so is Trump's own behavior. After showing up for the debate unprepared for the opportunity to speak directly to his own voters, he compounded the damage by attacking Taylor Swift in a pointless post on Truth Social. Coupled with reports that he was traveling with Laura Loomer -- an Internet provocatuese with her own agenda but nothing in particular to offer -- I have concluded that the Trump campaign has inexcusably lost its focus.
The election is still winnable, but he is not winning it, and he needs to change.
After making that argument, I found a lot of people agreed. But I also received a lot of pushback from some conservative influencers on social media. Here are the things they appear to believe and are encouraging other people to believe:
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"The polls are wrong." Polls showing Harris with a lead, or Trump with only a narrow lead, are said to be aimed at suppressing the vote and are not to be trusted. You should be skeptical of polls in general but there is a real possibility that Harris is winning, or that Trump isn't winning by enough to overcome the familiar problems with vote-by-mail.
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"Kamala's crowds are fake." The overwhelming enthusiasm of Democratic voters after Harris replaced Biden is not an illusion; they are back in this thing.
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"There is going to be a dramatic shift of minority voters." This never happens and there is no reason to think it is going to happen in a significant way, now.
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"Kamala got the debate questions in advance." She may have had some help, and there was apparently a deal about the moderators only fact-checking one side, but she didn't have the questions: her answers were terrible.
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"Trump never posted about Taylor Swift." I've literally seen people claim it was photoshopped. Go to Truth Social yourself and see it on his own feed.
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"People in Springfield, OH, are literally eating pets." There are problems with migrants in Springfield; this isn't one of them, even if it is a symbolic idea.
You can believe these things if you want to believe them. Just be aware that for many of the people circulating these claims, these are recreational beliefs, or ways in which they cope with reality, and that if they are wrong, they will just shift to other recreational beliefs, such as that the election was stolen anyway.
I do believe the 2020 election was "neither free nor fair" (and wrote a book to that effect). I also believe that there are "rigged" elements in the system (the ABC News debate, the vote-by-mail system). I still believe that Trump could win by swamping the polls with voters. He's not doing anything to achieve that.
Accordingly, I am going to tell you what I believe is actually happening. I could be wrong, but I'm also not trying to live in an alternative reality. I'm not being "defeatist"; I'm trying to help Trump and America avoid defeat.
I'm doing what I can to keep people focused on the task at hand, now. That requires honesty.
This week's portion broadly covers the basic framework of a judicial system, necessary for the functioning of the society that the Israelites were to establish upon entering the Holy Land of Israel -- including "cities of refuge."
These cities were place where those guilty of involuntary manslaughter could flee to escape the righteous vengeance of their victims' families. They would be allowed to return to their homes upon the death of the High Priest.
It is curious that Biblical law is not particularly focused on incarceration, but does include this form of exile and quasi-imprisonment: you are free to leave the city of refuge, but then the "avenger" is entitled to kill you if he finds you.
In that way, the guilty party becomes his or her own jailer -- in a sense, imposing his or her own program of punishment and correction, taking charge of the repentance that is necessary to correct a deep personal flaw.
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This week, we are tackling two major areas of contention between the Trump administration and Democrat governors: fighting crime, and redistricting. The president is sending the National Guard to blue cities -- and blue states are trying to stamp out Republican representation. Is this a civil war situation?
Special guests:
- Bradley Jaye -- Breitbart News congressional correspondent, on redistricting
- Tom Manza, California Business and Industrial Alliance, on Gavin Newsom
- Jon Fleischman, veteran California political expert, on the special election
- Dan Backer, veteran political lawyer and consultant, on corruption
- DJ Mark Anthony, on a recent visit to Rome and visiting Pope Leo XIV
Tune in: SiriusXM Patriot 125, 7-10 p.m. ET / 4-7 p.m. PT
Call: 866-957-2874
This week's portion is the last of the month of Av -- also known as Menachem (Comforter) Av -- which begins in mourning and ends in celebration and anticipation of the New Year and the process of repentance and renewal.
In a similar vein, the portion features Moses offering the Israelites a choice between a blessing and a curse. They are masters of their own fates: if they obey God's commandments, they receive the blessings -- and vice versa.
The key commandment is to reject idol worship. There is said to be something magnetic about the practice of worshiping idols in the new land, such that it would be constant moral battle, both individually and collectively, in the land.
Nowadays, according to Jewish tradition, humanity has lost the urge for idol worship (and the antidote, which is divine prophecy) -- but there are several near substitutes, such as lust or excessive appetites for worldly pleasures.
We are wired for compulsive behaviors, bad habits, and even addictions. These ...
