Joel Pollak
Politics • Lifestyle • News • Travel • Writing
I will share my thoughts about American politics, as well as current events in Israel and elsewhere, based on my experiences in the U.S., South Africa, and the Middle East. I will also discuss books and popular culture from the perspective of a somewhat libertarian, religiously observant conservative living in California. I will also share art and ideas that I find useful and helpful, and link to my content at Breitbart News, Amazon, and elsewhere.
Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
The surprise Iowa poll: could Kamala Harris win?

Saturday saw the release of an Iowa poll that showed Kamala Harris up 3 points -- a shocking result in a state where she has done no campaigning, is historically unpopular, and has trended Republican for the last several election cycles.

The poll has breathed new life into Democratic hopes, as one prediction market now says that Harris will win (the others say Trump will win), and Democrats wonder if polls showing Trump doing well (including in Iowa) are wrong.

What is actually going on?

We begin with a couple of basic principles. First, a poll is a snapshot of the electorate, but once in a while it will get the electorate wrong. Typical polls report their results with a 95% confidence interval -- but it is possible, in rare cases, that they simply collected an unrepresentative sample. That happened recently to Rasmussen, which has shown Trump leading nationally for months. One night, it showed Harris leading, then went right back to a Trump lead.

Second, polls can be manipulated by changing various assumptions about the nature of the electorate. These assumptions are used to process the raw data. I doubt that was the case with this poll, so close to the election, but who knows.

Third, it really is possible that Kamala Harris voters are being under-sampled elsewhere -- that she is bringing in a host of new female voters. This has been the Democratic hope for months: that abortion will put her over the top.

Fourth, though unlikely, is that Trump's comedian, with his Puerto Rico joke, turned off enough voters to give Harris a massive surge. I doubt this happened (I had trouble remembering the whole thing, just one week ago), but maybe.

The truth is that we don't know what is going to happen. Vote-by-mail has added to the confusion, because the polls are coming out while voters in many states are voting, or have voted, already, so they may be skewed somehow.

Personally, I begin with the assumption that Republicans never win close races, except by surprise. This is because Democrats control the process of voting (Republicans treat it as a neutral exercise), so they can turn out votes where they need to.

When Republicans win, it is because they have won in places Democrats did not anticipate (see the "blue wall" in 2016), or because Democrats are demoralized (which happens, on occasion) and don't bother fighting anymore.

Next, there is also the problem of bias. Republicans believed a massive victory was coming in 2022, and it was wiped out. Why? Partly because abortion was a big issue, but also because Republicans have stopped trusting nearly ALL media.

The fact that the media do lie about major things, and often, has meant that the conservative world has turned to partisan sources for news. The Republican confidence in recent days might reflect a more airtight bubble, not reality.

Both sides seem to think their candidate has the edge. I would still rather be Trump, for a variety of reasons. I think he has campaigned like a winner and she has campaigned like a loser. But the "Hitler Heil Mary" may also be working.

We can't know. I do know that if Harris wins, Republicans will not accept the result. Nor should they: the media have been biased, the Democrat candidate won zero primary votes; and even the judicial system has been weaponized.

The best result for the country is one in which Trump wins a landslide and we can all move on, seeing as he is termed out in 2029. The worst result is one in which the outlier Iowa poll is correct and we are back at each other's throats.

Perhaps the likeliest result is the most entertaining one: Harris wins everywhere Biden won, except Michigan and Pennsylvania, where she loses because of the Middle East; and then the House decides the race on January 6, 2025.

Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
What else you may like…
Videos
Posts
Time-lapse sunrise at Temescal Falls
00:00:17
This is what is left of my special place in the forest

Burned, then covered in mudslides and rockslides. The river still flows through it. But we have lost so much. I have to believe the spirit still lives on.

00:00:16
The drive home 💔
00:00:46
Weekly Torah portion: Chukat (Numbers 19:1 - 22:1)

This week's portion includes the commandment of the red heifer -- one of the classic "irrational" commandments whose fulfillment is an expression of faith. It also includes the regrettable episode in which Moses strikes the rock.

I referred to this story in a wedding speech last night. Why was Moses punished for striking the rock in Numbers, when he struck the rock without incident in Exodus -- both for the purpose of providing water to the people?

The answer is that in the interim, the Jewish people had received the Torah, which is like the marriage contract between the people of Israel and God. In a marriage, you do not resolve things by breaking boundaries, but through love.

The additional reading, from Judges Chapter 11, is the story of Jephthah (Yiftach), a man whom the leaders spurn, but to whom they must turn to save the nation. The parallels to our present political circumstances are striking.

Shabbat Shalom and Happy Fourth of July!

...

Breitbart News Sunday: June 29, 2025

What a week it was for President Donald Trump -- and what a week it's going to be, as we prepare to celebrate the 249th anniversary of the United States. From the BBB to Iran, to the jobs numbers later this week -- so much news!

We'll focus -- unusually so -- on a recap of recent events, just because they have been so profound -- but we'll also look ahead to things to come.

Special guests:

Assemblyman Carl DeMaio -- on California gas prices and Gavin Newsom
Bradley Jaye -- Breitbart News congressional correspondent, on the BBB
Carrie Severino -- Judicial Crisis Network, on recent SCOTUS decisions
James Rosen -- Newsmax White House correspondent, on the media
Frances Martel -- Breitbart News foreign editor, on Iran and Israel
Alan Dershowitz -- lawyer and author, on Iran and antisemitism

Tune in: SiriusXM Patriot 125, 7-10 p.m. ET, 4-7 p.m. PT
Call in: 866-957-2874

Weekly Torah portion: Korach (Numbers 16:1 - 18:32)

This week's portion is about the rebellion of Korach against Moses. The story is a powerful lesson about the role of good leaders -- and the unique challenges they face, as it is human nature to question why others should have authority.

Korach's rebellion fails because it is ultimately based on personal interests, even though it uses the language of common grievance. Moses prevails because he remains true to his faith even when confronted by a crowd.

We have seen a lot of "Korach" lately in my particular political world, as a cohort of "talkers" has tried to challenge the Republican "establishment" over support for Israel. They lost badly this week because their protests was empty.

It's never a good idea to bet against Israel, or against God. My advice to those tempted to join such rebellions is to search their own hearts, and ask if they are acting out of conviction or out of some other motive, perhaps conformity.

There is another lesson in Moses's reaction. When God says he will ...

See More
Available on mobile and TV devices
google store google store app store app store
google store google store app tv store app tv store amazon store amazon store roku store roku store
Powered by Locals