Joel Pollak
Politics • Lifestyle • News • Travel • Writing
I will share my thoughts about American politics, as well as current events in Israel and elsewhere, based on my experiences in the U.S., South Africa, and the Middle East. I will also discuss books and popular culture from the perspective of a somewhat libertarian, religiously observant conservative living in California. I will also share art and ideas that I find useful and helpful, and link to my content at Breitbart News, Amazon, and elsewhere.
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The surprise Iowa poll: could Kamala Harris win?

Saturday saw the release of an Iowa poll that showed Kamala Harris up 3 points -- a shocking result in a state where she has done no campaigning, is historically unpopular, and has trended Republican for the last several election cycles.

The poll has breathed new life into Democratic hopes, as one prediction market now says that Harris will win (the others say Trump will win), and Democrats wonder if polls showing Trump doing well (including in Iowa) are wrong.

What is actually going on?

We begin with a couple of basic principles. First, a poll is a snapshot of the electorate, but once in a while it will get the electorate wrong. Typical polls report their results with a 95% confidence interval -- but it is possible, in rare cases, that they simply collected an unrepresentative sample. That happened recently to Rasmussen, which has shown Trump leading nationally for months. One night, it showed Harris leading, then went right back to a Trump lead.

Second, polls can be manipulated by changing various assumptions about the nature of the electorate. These assumptions are used to process the raw data. I doubt that was the case with this poll, so close to the election, but who knows.

Third, it really is possible that Kamala Harris voters are being under-sampled elsewhere -- that she is bringing in a host of new female voters. This has been the Democratic hope for months: that abortion will put her over the top.

Fourth, though unlikely, is that Trump's comedian, with his Puerto Rico joke, turned off enough voters to give Harris a massive surge. I doubt this happened (I had trouble remembering the whole thing, just one week ago), but maybe.

The truth is that we don't know what is going to happen. Vote-by-mail has added to the confusion, because the polls are coming out while voters in many states are voting, or have voted, already, so they may be skewed somehow.

Personally, I begin with the assumption that Republicans never win close races, except by surprise. This is because Democrats control the process of voting (Republicans treat it as a neutral exercise), so they can turn out votes where they need to.

When Republicans win, it is because they have won in places Democrats did not anticipate (see the "blue wall" in 2016), or because Democrats are demoralized (which happens, on occasion) and don't bother fighting anymore.

Next, there is also the problem of bias. Republicans believed a massive victory was coming in 2022, and it was wiped out. Why? Partly because abortion was a big issue, but also because Republicans have stopped trusting nearly ALL media.

The fact that the media do lie about major things, and often, has meant that the conservative world has turned to partisan sources for news. The Republican confidence in recent days might reflect a more airtight bubble, not reality.

Both sides seem to think their candidate has the edge. I would still rather be Trump, for a variety of reasons. I think he has campaigned like a winner and she has campaigned like a loser. But the "Hitler Heil Mary" may also be working.

We can't know. I do know that if Harris wins, Republicans will not accept the result. Nor should they: the media have been biased, the Democrat candidate won zero primary votes; and even the judicial system has been weaponized.

The best result for the country is one in which Trump wins a landslide and we can all move on, seeing as he is termed out in 2029. The worst result is one in which the outlier Iowa poll is correct and we are back at each other's throats.

Perhaps the likeliest result is the most entertaining one: Harris wins everywhere Biden won, except Michigan and Pennsylvania, where she loses because of the Middle East; and then the House decides the race on January 6, 2025.

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Time-lapse sunrise at Temescal Falls
00:00:17
This is what is left of my special place in the forest

Burned, then covered in mudslides and rockslides. The river still flows through it. But we have lost so much. I have to believe the spirit still lives on.

00:00:16
The drive home 💔
00:00:46
Breitbart News Sunday: show rundown (July 27, 2025)

President Trump is in Scotland, playing golf and making big trade deals -- a major deal with the EU, in fact. Meanwhile, there is a global outcry about humanitarian aid to Palestinians (not about the Israeli hostages, mind you).

On top of that, Democrats are at their lowest polling numbers ever -- so they are trying to win control of the House by redistricting in the middle of a 10-year Census cycle. Oh, economic optimism is up, so they have a tough road.

And Tulsi Gabbard's revelations about the Russia collusion investigation make it clear that Obama's lieutenants lied to Congress. How deeply was he himself involved? The media continue to ignore the evidence, but we certainly won't.

Special guests:

Nick Gilbertson - Breitbart News White House correspondent, on EU deal
Frances Martel - Breitbart News foreign editor, on Trump abroad and Russia
John Spencer - urban warfare expert, on humanitarian aid and war in Gaza
Bradley Jaye - Breitbart News congressional correspondent, on the ...

Weekly Torah portion: Matot-Masei (Numbers 30:2 - 36:13)

This double portion is the last reading from the Book of Numbers, or Bamidbar. This particular week, it doubles as the holiday of Rosh Chodesh, the head of the month, inaugurating the sad-then-happy month of Av.

The portion begins with a review of the law of vows and their nullification. It then covers the final preparations for entering the Land of Israel. The first order of business: revenge against the Midianites. Then: a deal with three tribes who wished to claim well-watered territories east of the Jordan River.

Finally: the demarcation of tribal boundaries within Israel, and a review of the commandments regarding such geographic issues as cities of refuge.

Why is it important to begin with the laws of nullifying vows? It might seem counterintuitive, given that the Jewish people are about to renew their covenant with God by entering into, and conquering, and living in, the Land.

My answer: We sometimes begin with the terms for dissolving a relationship in order to discover the ...

Breitbart News Sunday: show rundown (July 20, 2025)

This week, we'll cover a wide variety of topics -- from the economy, to what's next on Capitol Hill after the "Big, Beautiful Bill," to the Middle East, and to the continuation of "lawfare." Is Tulsi Gabbard out for revenge against a "treasonous" former Obama administration? (That's a big word.)

Special guests:

Bradley Jaye -- Breitbart News congressional correspondent
Dylan Gwinn -- Breitbart News sports editor, on Trump and the Redskins
Alex Swoyer -- journalist and former Breitbart News colleague, on law fare.

Tune in: SiriusXM Patriot 125, 7-10 p.m. ET, 4-7 p.m. PT
Call: 866-957-2874

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