I was never particularly optimistic about the Newsom recall, for two reasons. One: he is not doing particularly worse than your typical Democratic governor. Most have done draconian shutdowns, ruined their states' economies, begged for federal cash, and violated their own coronavirus regulations. The only difference in California is that there is a recall mechanism. But the blue state electorate wants the suffering; they think it works and they are insulated from its effects. Plus, they get to "other" the hated rubes who oppose the new order.

Two: California is just so far gone. The failure of Schwarzenegger to change anything was a signal to beleaguered Californians to head for the exits. Small business owners and homeowners have left in droves, meaning that the middle class -- i.e. the Republican base -- has dwindled substantially. People who are still here either love the natural environment too much to leave, or have assets tied up in the local economy. (Very much like the country my parents left.)

So I think recall proponents can take pride in making this a contest -- so much so that President Joe Biden is making an appearance on Monday. The effort got a boost when Newsom was caught eating with lobbyists, indoors and maskers, at the elite French Laundry restaurant. (Thanks to Fox 11 KTTV, now Fox News, reporter Bill Melugin for breaking that all-important story.) There was no clear candidate for a while, but Larry Elder's late entry has made it a real race.

Elder has energized conservatives because he gets it. He speaks directly to the desire many people feel for a return to basic values of hard work, constitutional government, and color-blindness. Despite the media's effort to turn him into some kind of antediluvian racial stereotype of an out-of-control black man (this is really what they've done), he connects to people across the racial spectrum -- and would connect across the political spectrum, if liberals would listen.

An added bonus is how Elder has gotten under the thin skin of the local corrupt political establishment. Democrats have not run on the success of their policies; they have run a negative campaign demonizing Elder. They have participated in racist labeling and none has spoken out against racial violence targeting Elder. The L.A. Times in particular will never, and should never, live down what it has done. Newsom's own career may be permanently tarnished by association.

The recall has also forced Newsom to do his job, or at least to show some care for the concerns of regular people. When the recall threatened, he began to force the schools to reopen and to lift business restrictions. Those restrictions would be in place again were it not for the recall. So, too, would onerous water restrictions, which would be unnecessary if the state would manage water properly. The only new mandates are vaccine mandates -- which are just a sop to his base, since so many people have been vaccinated (or infected) already.

The liberal press is crying out that the recall is a test of California's democracy, by which they mean they are upset that it is happening at all. How dare the conservatives use the state's Progressive-era recall system to hold California's government accountable! It's the only thing the political minority has left, and Democrats are certain to attempt to eliminate it, just as they've rolled back any aspect of democracy that doesn't elect left-wing automatons to public office.

If Elder wins -- against all odds, and against polls showing a surge for Newsom, thanks to massive spending and the anti-Elder demonization campaign -- then it will be a massive achievement that could change the state and reverberate nationwide. He is more likely to lose; the state's blue electorate may hate the GOP more than they dislike Newsom. But he has provided a ray of sunshine in a dark time, and this could be the beginning of a nationwide renewal that will, in time, lift California as well, in spite of its failed, selfish political leadership.