Recent polls of potential Republican candidates for president in 2024 have shown former President Donald Trump far ahead of all contenders, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is otherwise popular with the conservative base. Trump remains a charismatic and entertaining leader who dares to call out the media and the Democrats in a way few others can, and he has emerged as an unofficial leader of the opposition, leading criticism of the Biden administration and endorsing candidates in Republican primary races.

Yet it is doubtful whether Trump can win a general election, unless Biden and the Democrats do even worse than they are doing right now. The shadow of January 6 will hang over his campaign, whether or not it was an "insurrection" or just a "riot." It was, at the very least, an irresponsible protest that had no chance of succeeding -- and, if it had succeeded, would have divided the country irrevocably. And while much of the effort to "investigate" January 6 is a partisan abuse of power, there is one problem that Trump will not be able to shake.

It is this: that January 6 was a tactical disaster. Trump's strength in foreign policy arose partly from being chaotic and unpredictable: Russian President Vladimir Putin spent his time trying to figure out what the American president would do next, rather than the other way around. But when it came to January 6, Trump made one miscalculation after another, leading his supporters into a political and physical cul-de-sac and losing control of the event. If he returns to office, he will still have the advantage of being unpredictable, but his tactical skills have been tarnished by the operational failure of the January 6 protest. And right now, with the nation confused and disunited after years of political polarization, Trump's chaotic style could actually be a liability for national security rather than an asset. In other words: the same trick won't work twice.

Chaos is also what voters want to avoid. The lesson of the 2021 off-year election results, when many Biden voters -- especially women -- came out in droves for Republican candidates in Virginia and New Jersey, is that there is an appetite for an alternative to the Democrats' left-wing "woke" ideology. But these are the same voter who found Trump's style and mannerisms off-putting -- who simply want to live their lives in a stable way, rather than waking up each morning to the latest outrage in the news about something Trump said or did.

Almost all of the possible contenders who could challenge Trump owe him their political careers. Nikki Haley was Trump's UN ambassador, and the base regards her as fickle. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is solid on the issues, but would have trouble running against his former boss, as would Gov. DeSantis, who was third in the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary until Trump backed him. A Trump-DeSantis fight could demoralize the base, such that GOP voters would not turn out for the general election in November 2024.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) presents the best alternative to Trump. He is with Trump on the issues, but does not have Trump's rhetorical baggage. And he precedes Trump on the political stage, and owes nothing to the former president. In fact, at times Cotton criticized the Trump administration when he felt the president had strayed on policy. He shares Trump's values but has a prior grounding in solid conservative constitutional principles that is sincere and credible. He was born on a farm in rural Arkansas -- what a story! -- and also has a stunning intellectual pedigree (Harvard College, Harvard Law, McKinsey). In addition, he has a distinguished Army combat career (Iraq, Afghanistan) to give him expertise on national security, foreign policy, and leadership.

Cotton has one drawback, which is his serious and severe demeanor. In ordinary circumstances, that might make it harder for voters to relate to him. But in the unique situation of a second Trump candidacy, Cotton's style might provide a perfect foil. In other words: a second Trump creates the ideal conditions for Cotton to succeed in winning the nomination and then the presidency.

The only thing that is unclear is how Cotton would overcome Trump' s massive name recognition and the loyalty of his core supporters. The great mistake other Trump opponents have made has been to state that he is somehow unqualified to hold the Oval Office, and to attack him directly. Cotton's approach should be to thank Trump for his outstanding service, but to argue that the party needs new leadership that is focused on the issues rather than the last election.

I have a bias: I was classmates with Tom as a young left-wing activist at Harvard. He and I debated occasionally, and we remain friends. I should also say that I would support Trump again if he were the nominee.

Still, I think an objective assessment would conclude that Tom Cotton is the Republican Party's best chance at winning in 2024 and succeeding beyond.