The situation in Ukraine remains dire, and it is tough to predict outcomes, given how few people predicted that Putin would send Russian troops into the country in the first place. Nevertheless, I think a likely outcome is emerging, and it is a diplomatic settlement, probably on unfavorable terms for Ukraine.

NATO is not going to war over Ukraine. That's the unfortunate (or fortunate, depending on how you look at it) consequence of the fact that Ukraine is not a member. It's an open question as to whether the U.S. would really go full-bore to defend a NATO member like, say, Turkey, but nonmembers have no chance.

That has consequences for frontline states such as Israel and Taiwan. These are emerging points of instability between the West on the one hand, and Russia/China on the other. Israel has tried to maintain good relations with all of the great powers; Taiwan, obviously, only has the U.S., and it barely has that.

But back to Ukraine. There will be no NATO no-fly zone, nor any other kind of no-fly zone. At the same time, Ukrainian resistance is dug in, and the Russian troops have been taking a beating so far. Putin hasn't yet brought in his biggest weapons, and Ukraine has yet to unleash a full counter-insurgency operation.

Russia's current demands -- no NATO membership, secession of the eastern provinces, recognition of Crimea as part of Russia -- are non-starters, because they are the same demands Ukraine rejected at the start of the war, and they amount to Russia using force to get what it wants, without compromise.

Yet are they reasonable demands? Russia has made clear that it regards NATO membership as a causus belli, and Ukraine isn't a member yet anyway, so it is probably not a major concession. Crimea is effectively part of Russia, sadly, so I'm not sure what Ukraine could hope for there, though recognition is a stretch.

There is probably room for some compromise that retains the breakaway parts of eastern Ukraine while devolving power somewhat, granting them greater regional autonomy. The one thing Ukraine can't accept is the idea that it can just be carved up by force. That is about sovereignty, not just about provinces.

We are in for a lot more fighting before both sides are ready to accept a deal as the best possible alternative to continuing. The cruel irony of war is that only a deal can stop the fighting, but only fighting will bring the two sides to a deal. Until then, Ukraine is basically on its own. Heroically, tragically, on its own.