The situation in Ukraine remains dire, and it is tough to predict outcomes, given how few people predicted that Putin would send Russian troops into the country in the first place. Nevertheless, I think a likely outcome is emerging, and it is a diplomatic settlement, probably on unfavorable terms for Ukraine.
NATO is not going to war over Ukraine. That's the unfortunate (or fortunate, depending on how you look at it) consequence of the fact that Ukraine is not a member. It's an open question as to whether the U.S. would really go full-bore to defend a NATO member like, say, Turkey, but nonmembers have no chance.
That has consequences for frontline states such as Israel and Taiwan. These are emerging points of instability between the West on the one hand, and Russia/China on the other. Israel has tried to maintain good relations with all of the great powers; Taiwan, obviously, only has the U.S., and it barely has that.
But back to Ukraine. There will be no NATO no-fly zone, nor any other kind of no-fly zone. At the same time, Ukrainian resistance is dug in, and the Russian troops have been taking a beating so far. Putin hasn't yet brought in his biggest weapons, and Ukraine has yet to unleash a full counter-insurgency operation.
Russia's current demands -- no NATO membership, secession of the eastern provinces, recognition of Crimea as part of Russia -- are non-starters, because they are the same demands Ukraine rejected at the start of the war, and they amount to Russia using force to get what it wants, without compromise.
Yet are they reasonable demands? Russia has made clear that it regards NATO membership as a causus belli, and Ukraine isn't a member yet anyway, so it is probably not a major concession. Crimea is effectively part of Russia, sadly, so I'm not sure what Ukraine could hope for there, though recognition is a stretch.
There is probably room for some compromise that retains the breakaway parts of eastern Ukraine while devolving power somewhat, granting them greater regional autonomy. The one thing Ukraine can't accept is the idea that it can just be carved up by force. That is about sovereignty, not just about provinces.
We are in for a lot more fighting before both sides are ready to accept a deal as the best possible alternative to continuing. The cruel irony of war is that only a deal can stop the fighting, but only fighting will bring the two sides to a deal. Until then, Ukraine is basically on its own. Heroically, tragically, on its own.
This week'd portion begins the book of Numbers. Interestingly, the Hebrew name for the book is "In the Desert," not "Numbers." The portion, which happens to be my bar mitzvah portion, focuses almost as much on the names of the princes of each tribe as the number of soldiers it fielded. It also focuses on the configuration of the tribal camps around the central Tabernacle and the Levites.
So why "Numbers" instead of "Names" or "Places"? The numbers are, to be sure, a unique feature of the opening of this Biblical book -- but they are not the focus of the rest of the narrative. The Hebrew focuses on the place where the events in the book take place, because essentially this is the narrative of the Israelites' wanderings from Egypt to Israel, across 40 years. We move from the giving of the Torah and the construction of the Tabernacle in Exodus and Leviticus, to the final valediction of Moses in Deuteronomy -- Bamidbar is the story of wandering that happened in between.
The question of ...
This week's portion begins with the laws of the Sabbath and the Sabbatical year, and the Jubilee year that restores all land to its original (tribal) owners. It also explores laws of property and labor that will apply in the Land of Israel, and the laws of vows and inheritance.
The Israelites are presented -- not for the last time -- with the essential moral choice that they must face, and the rewards for choosing well, along with the consequences for choosing poorly.
We learn that doing good things will earn God's protection from enemies. That does not mean that victims of terror, God forbid, were sinful. But it does mean that we can respond to evil by committing ourselves to a higher path.
This week's portion describes the major sacrifices that are to be offered by the Jewish people, including those that are offered only by the priestly Kohen class, and physical requirements of the people (men) who serve in that role.
Inter alia, there are interesting commandments -- such as an injection to treat animals with respect and care, first, by letting a mother animal nurse her offspring for a week before being offered in any sacrifice; and second, by refraining from slaughtering an animal and its offspring on the same day.
The commandments regarding animals remind us of the purpose of those regarding human beings: to uphold a divine connection, through ritual.
https://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/111878/jewish/Rabbi-Isaac-Luria-The-Ari-Hakodosh.htm
