I believe Trump will win simply because the alternative is too dangerous for too many people.

Inflation will not be solved under Kamala Harris except through far higher interest rates, and through deep recessions -- and the Fed is signaling it lacks the stomach to do what Volcker did in the early 1980s, at least when a Democrat is in office, so I don't think we'd solve the problem in the near future.

War is not going to stop. There will be more of it, and it may reach our shores.

Lawfare. Targeting political opponents through the justice system. "Reform" by prosecutors who have allowed criminals to run rampant. Transgenderism in the schools. Censorship on social media. Forced EV cars and higher energy prices.

I could go on. Basically, there are enough people for whom all the hoopla -- debates, ads, polls, etc. -- simply doesn't matter. People are going to vote for change because we cannot leave the incompetent Ivy Leaguers in charge.

But the obstacles are immense, as the debate this week reminded us, with its crazy bias from the moderators. Vote-by-mail is a scam. Media bias is real. Censorship is going on, quietly. Trump has to overcome all of that.

Can he?

I don't know, but I've chosen to believe that he will. I want to be clear: that's a belief that I've chosen. It would be more logical to conclude that he cannot win and that the machine behind Kamala Harris will simply win (and fail in office).

So I am aware that I am choosing a belief that is likely to fail, possibly so that I can make it through the next few months, possibly because doing so makes the outcome more likely to happen.

It's not crazy, just perhaps unlikely. But I do believe.