Israeli reserve General Amir Avivi, who predicted the Third Lebanon War just over a week before it began, says that an Israeli counterattack against Iran is coming soon and that it will be very "fierce" and also "surprising."
I agree, and here's why: Donald Trump is not going to want war in the Middle East if and when he wins the election. The deadline for military action is January 20. Israel did not want a war, but now that it has one, it has to win it.
Originally I thought Israel would wait until Election Day, November 5 (two weeks from today), to strike. Now I think it may strike even earlier, with Trump gaining in the polls. (Kamala Harris's debate performance, conversely, may have suggested to Israeli leaders that they had to act soon in case she won the election.)
I'm not buying stories about intelligence leaks of Israeli attack plans. No doubt U.S. intelligence is leaky -- which is why Israel is probably not sharing much information with the Biden administration. But I doubt the latest stories.
For one thing, Democrats administrations have used such leaks before to undermine Israeli attack plans. For another, the people reporting these leaks are the usual national security conspiracy theory suspects, and anti-Israel nuts.
I anticipate that there will be an air component to the attack, but that the "surprises" could come on the ground, either from Iranian rebels or Israeli commandos who manage to infiltrate Iran. There could also be an attack from the east -- say, a makeshift airstrip in Afghanistan that disappears overnight.
Avivi says the war will last "many months." Late October thru January is "many."
Israel's goals will be threefold: 1. To eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat. 2. To damage the regime's ability to fund terror abroad. 3. To destabilize the Iranian regime domestically so that the Iranian people can topple it themselves.
We can only wait from afar to see what happens. (There is no choice; most of the major airlines aren't flying to Israel and my own flights were canceled.) We wait, we watch, we pray, we write. I do think things will work out for the best.
This is the final edition of THE AGENDA -- finished a few days early!
This week's portion elucidates some of the first laws and principles of the Torah that follow the Ten Commandments, including -- a message particularly relevant to freed slaves -- the Jewish restrictions on indentured servitude.
God also provides the basic civil laws of Jewish society, governing almost every area of life -- in this one portion! -- as well as several basic principles of faith and religious observance. Moses then ascends Sinai for 40 days.
One of the laws God gives is the law against taunting a foreigner. This is different from allowing people to enter your land illegally; it is about showing respect, however, for people from other lands and other groups.
I am reminded of the importance of this principle because of the rhetoric lately attacking Elon Musk, a fellow South African-turned-American, for his foreign roots -- often by people who favor illegal immigration, ironically.
...
Since the Palisades Fire on January 7, my posts have been fairly sparse. I have just been so busy -- fighting the fire, covering the fire, helping neighbors, and launching a new podcast, "Three Homeless Guys," with two local friends.
Things are up and down. My family is still displaced, and we haven't resolved our living situation. We are awaiting answers from the insurance company (State Farm) on what they will cover, including alternative living expenses.
There are some incredible opportunities opening up -- more on that later -- and our kids are generally doing well, though this has been hard for them as well (especially the two middle kids, who miss their friends and their house).
The emotion of it all hit me yesterday. Today I feel wrung out. But I also feel that, in a way, going through the fire has been a process of refinement, of re-casting in a new mould, to face new challenges. And to win each new day.
So much to talk about, once again, as the Trump administration continues at breakneck pace. From DOGE chewing through the federal bureaucracy, to Marco Rubio heading out on his first missions for Trump, there's so much...
Special guests:
Assemblyman Carl DeMaio -- on the L.A. fires and reforming CA insurance
Matt Boyle -- Breitbart News political editor, on DOGE and confirmations
Jamie Paige -- founder of the Westside Current, on L.A. politics and the fires
Frances Martel -- Breitbart News foreign editor, on Rubio and Russia/Ukraine
Rob Hersov -- South African commentator, on SA's fight with the White House
Tune in: SiriusXM Patriot 125, 7-10 p.m. ET, 4-7 p.m. PT
Call in: 866-957-2874
