Israeli reserve General Amir Avivi, who predicted the Third Lebanon War just over a week before it began, says that an Israeli counterattack against Iran is coming soon and that it will be very "fierce" and also "surprising."
I agree, and here's why: Donald Trump is not going to want war in the Middle East if and when he wins the election. The deadline for military action is January 20. Israel did not want a war, but now that it has one, it has to win it.
Originally I thought Israel would wait until Election Day, November 5 (two weeks from today), to strike. Now I think it may strike even earlier, with Trump gaining in the polls. (Kamala Harris's debate performance, conversely, may have suggested to Israeli leaders that they had to act soon in case she won the election.)
I'm not buying stories about intelligence leaks of Israeli attack plans. No doubt U.S. intelligence is leaky -- which is why Israel is probably not sharing much information with the Biden administration. But I doubt the latest stories.
For one thing, Democrats administrations have used such leaks before to undermine Israeli attack plans. For another, the people reporting these leaks are the usual national security conspiracy theory suspects, and anti-Israel nuts.
I anticipate that there will be an air component to the attack, but that the "surprises" could come on the ground, either from Iranian rebels or Israeli commandos who manage to infiltrate Iran. There could also be an attack from the east -- say, a makeshift airstrip in Afghanistan that disappears overnight.
Avivi says the war will last "many months." Late October thru January is "many."
Israel's goals will be threefold: 1. To eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat. 2. To damage the regime's ability to fund terror abroad. 3. To destabilize the Iranian regime domestically so that the Iranian people can topple it themselves.
We can only wait from afar to see what happens. (There is no choice; most of the major airlines aren't flying to Israel and my own flights were canceled.) We wait, we watch, we pray, we write. I do think things will work out for the best.
This is the portion that all journalists should love: the Torah tells the story of the 12 spies, only two of whom tell the truth when the other ten shade it in a negative away (perhaps to suit a political agenda that is opposed to Moses).
It's not that the ten "lying" spies misconstrue the facts about the Land of Israel; rather, they interject their opinions that the land is impossible to conquer, which strikes unnecessary terror into the hearts of the people.
We have many examples of such fake news today -- from the Iranian propaganda outlets spreading false claims that they are winning the war, to California politicians spreading false horror stories about ICE raids in L.A.
The people realize, too late, that they have been fooled, and once they are condemned to die in the desert, they try to rush into Israel -- only to be defeated by the inhabitants, as the spies predicted that they would be.
But as consolation, God gives the people new commandments -- focused on things they must ...
This week's portion discusses the procedure for lighting the menorah, the holy seven-branched lamp, in the Tabernacle (and later the Temple). It also describes an episode where the people crave meat, and God punishes them by giving it to them in excess. We also read the story of Miriam, Moses's sister, who is punished with the spiritual skin blemish of tzara'at for speaking about her brother, thus violating the prohibition against lashon hara (evil tongue).
I heard a fantastic sermon this week about the lighting of the menorah: that while only the priests were qualified to clean and purify the menorah, anyone could light it. A reminder that each of us can inspire others along the way.
This week we study the vow of the Nazirite; a reminder that sometimes trying to be too holy is excessive, and the best we can do is to be the best that we are.
https://www.chabad.org/parshah/torahreading_cdo/aid/2495720/p/complete/jewish/Naso-Torah-Reading.htm
