Israeli reserve General Amir Avivi, who predicted the Third Lebanon War just over a week before it began, says that an Israeli counterattack against Iran is coming soon and that it will be very "fierce" and also "surprising."
I agree, and here's why: Donald Trump is not going to want war in the Middle East if and when he wins the election. The deadline for military action is January 20. Israel did not want a war, but now that it has one, it has to win it.
Originally I thought Israel would wait until Election Day, November 5 (two weeks from today), to strike. Now I think it may strike even earlier, with Trump gaining in the polls. (Kamala Harris's debate performance, conversely, may have suggested to Israeli leaders that they had to act soon in case she won the election.)
I'm not buying stories about intelligence leaks of Israeli attack plans. No doubt U.S. intelligence is leaky -- which is why Israel is probably not sharing much information with the Biden administration. But I doubt the latest stories.
For one thing, Democrats administrations have used such leaks before to undermine Israeli attack plans. For another, the people reporting these leaks are the usual national security conspiracy theory suspects, and anti-Israel nuts.
I anticipate that there will be an air component to the attack, but that the "surprises" could come on the ground, either from Iranian rebels or Israeli commandos who manage to infiltrate Iran. There could also be an attack from the east -- say, a makeshift airstrip in Afghanistan that disappears overnight.
Avivi says the war will last "many months." Late October thru January is "many."
Israel's goals will be threefold: 1. To eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat. 2. To damage the regime's ability to fund terror abroad. 3. To destabilize the Iranian regime domestically so that the Iranian people can topple it themselves.
We can only wait from afar to see what happens. (There is no choice; most of the major airlines aren't flying to Israel and my own flights were canceled.) We wait, we watch, we pray, we write. I do think things will work out for the best.
This is my first broadcast from the new office and studio in Washington, DC, where I'll be for a couple of years my neighborhood back in L.A. cleans up -- and as we follow the Trump administration from a little closer up than usual.
Topics:
- The anniversary of the attempted assassination of President Donald Trump
- The escalating tariff battle with various different trading partners
- The future of the Middle East peace talks, and ongoing antisemitism
- The Jeffrey Epstein files and whether they mean anything at all
- The continued crisis of the Texas floods, and stories of heroism and survival
And more!
Special guests:
- James Rosen - Newsmax chief Washington correspondent
- Bob Price - Breitbart News Texas reporter, on the ongoing floods
- Robert Cahill - Trafalgar Polling, on a new alliance of reliable pollsters
- Rabbi Yaakov Menken - Coalition for Jewish Values - on Israel & antisemitism
Tune in: 7-10 p.m. ET, 4-7 p.m. PT
Call: 866-957-2874
This week’s portion tells the grand story of the prophet who tried to curse people of Israel and instead ended up blessing them.
I am reminded that these portions continue to be relevant anew, as this particular reading lent the title for Israel’s recent 12 Day War against Iran, “Operation Rising Lion.”
This week's portion includes the commandment of the red heifer -- one of the classic "irrational" commandments whose fulfillment is an expression of faith. It also includes the regrettable episode in which Moses strikes the rock.
I referred to this story in a wedding speech last night. Why was Moses punished for striking the rock in Numbers, when he struck the rock without incident in Exodus -- both for the purpose of providing water to the people?
The answer is that in the interim, the Jewish people had received the Torah, which is like the marriage contract between the people of Israel and God. In a marriage, you do not resolve things by breaking boundaries, but through love.
The additional reading, from Judges Chapter 11, is the story of Jephthah (Yiftach), a man whom the leaders spurn, but to whom they must turn to save the nation. The parallels to our present political circumstances are striking.
Shabbat Shalom and Happy Fourth of July!
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