Israeli reserve General Amir Avivi, who predicted the Third Lebanon War just over a week before it began, says that an Israeli counterattack against Iran is coming soon and that it will be very "fierce" and also "surprising."
I agree, and here's why: Donald Trump is not going to want war in the Middle East if and when he wins the election. The deadline for military action is January 20. Israel did not want a war, but now that it has one, it has to win it.
Originally I thought Israel would wait until Election Day, November 5 (two weeks from today), to strike. Now I think it may strike even earlier, with Trump gaining in the polls. (Kamala Harris's debate performance, conversely, may have suggested to Israeli leaders that they had to act soon in case she won the election.)
I'm not buying stories about intelligence leaks of Israeli attack plans. No doubt U.S. intelligence is leaky -- which is why Israel is probably not sharing much information with the Biden administration. But I doubt the latest stories.
For one thing, Democrats administrations have used such leaks before to undermine Israeli attack plans. For another, the people reporting these leaks are the usual national security conspiracy theory suspects, and anti-Israel nuts.
I anticipate that there will be an air component to the attack, but that the "surprises" could come on the ground, either from Iranian rebels or Israeli commandos who manage to infiltrate Iran. There could also be an attack from the east -- say, a makeshift airstrip in Afghanistan that disappears overnight.
Avivi says the war will last "many months." Late October thru January is "many."
Israel's goals will be threefold: 1. To eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat. 2. To damage the regime's ability to fund terror abroad. 3. To destabilize the Iranian regime domestically so that the Iranian people can topple it themselves.
We can only wait from afar to see what happens. (There is no choice; most of the major airlines aren't flying to Israel and my own flights were canceled.) We wait, we watch, we pray, we write. I do think things will work out for the best.
Today's episode is devoted to the second anniversary of the October 7 terror attacks. It was produced before the announcement of a ceasefire deal, yet remains current & relevant.
Please listen, and #bringthemhome.
SiriusXM Patriot 125, 7-10 p.m. ET (4-7 PT)
This week's portion is a beautiful poem, containing the Covenant between God and the people of Israel. But given the breaking news that Hamas may actually have agreed to release all of the Israeli hostages, I will devote my remarks to that.
One hopes it is true; if so, it makes this week's additional reading, from II Samuel 22, even more relevant: David's song of praise to the Lord for delivering him from the hand of his enemies.
"18 He rescued me from my powerful enemy,
from my foes, who were too strong for me.
19 They confronted me in the day of my disaster,
but the Lord was my support."
So much to focus on this week -- and much breaking news. A peace deal in the Middle East, perhaps? Eric Adams dropping out of the mayor's race? And a looming shutdown as Democrats push their demands beyond absurdity.
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